College Football Week 10: Wake Forest and Michigan State on Upset Alert
Before we review last week can we talk about the CFP rankings? How is Alabama ranked number 2? They don’t have any impressive wins and lost to a backup quarterback at Texas A&M. It is like their losses don’t mean anything. I get it that it is early and they could absolutely play themselves in by winning out and beating Georgia in the SEC title game, but I would like if there was a more accurate assessment with our mid-season ratings that actually took the most deserving resumes into account.
Now to recap last week. I promised you guys a bounce back and we rolled last week going 2-1 in the plays of the week as well as having Mississippi State -1, Notre Dame -3.5, and Houston -3.
We can’t dwell on it too long as we have to turn our attention to keeping the money train moving this week. Next play, next play, next play. A bit different this week, I have four plays of the week. We’ve got two in the ACC and two in the Big Ten.
Play of the week #1: UNC -2.5 vs Wake Forest
This is a classic system play. For the longer time subscribers you are familiar with the system: unranked home favorites vs. ranked conference opponents. It worked to our favor last week with Wisconsin, Houston, and Mississippi State. I am dipping back into the well again. Why I love this play even more is that the public is all over Wake Forest as 67% are betting on the Demon Deacons. Guys, Wake really hasn’t played anybody of note yet. They just let up 56 points to Army and now have to take on a UNC offense that can put up points with the best of them in the country. I really like UNC winning a shootout in this one and ending an undefeated season.
Play of the week #2: Pitt -21 @ Duke
Pitt dropped a tough one a week ago against Miami but that was a prime let-down spot coming off of that huge win against Clemson. Now they get the perfect “get right” spot against a horrible Duke team. Pitt has a top 5 offense in the country this year and will lay a beat down on Duke this week. Pat Narduzzi’s squad still controls their own destiny in the ACC Coastal and will roll right over this team with a huge win. Three of Duke’s last four games they have lost by at least 31 points. This number feels low and I love it.
Play of the week #3: Penn State -10 @ Maryland
I really don’t know why Maryland gets any respect against the big dogs of the Big 10 in the betting community. They were 3 point dogs against Iowa and lost 51-14. This team also lost to Ohio State 66-17. Penn State is in the same tier as those schools and should roll them. The only thing that scares me about this game is that with rumors about James Franklin going to USC and Penn State’s season effectively being over, will they bring any fight to University Park Saturday? I am going to say that will not happen and that this team will continue to fight. I love the matchup the Nittany Lions defense has and think their offense should be able to put together some nice drives. This team has handled bad teams well (with the exception of Illinois) and see that continuing Saturday
Play of the week #4: Purdue +3 vs. Michigan State
This is the trappiest trap line. If I were a Spartan fan I would be very concerned about this week. Currently Michigan State is getting 81% of the money and this line has not moved. Vegas ain’t in this to go broke folks. It has to be tough for Michigan State to get up for this game on the road after laying it all on the line a week ago against Michigan. How does Purdue pull off the upset? They can do it through the air. They currently rank 16th in the country in passing and Michigan State has a suspect secondary. They let the 84th ranked pass offense in the country throw for 400 yards against them a week ago. I would bet Purdue operates better at home than Michigan does on the road. I think Purdue covers this game and can win it outright.
Other Plays I like:
Auburn +4.5: I feel like I am getting the better team with points in this one
Wisconsin -13.5 @ Rutgers: Rutgers will have real issues scoring in this one
Air Force-Army U 37: when 2/3 of the service academies play each other since 2005, the under is 35-9-1 coming into this season. It has become an auto play.
If you like the picks make sure to share with a friend! You can also follow me on my Action network HERE. You can see how I bet throughout the week and if there are any plays I add after the newsletter is sent out. It also tracks all of my futures across the major sports if there are any that you would like to tail. Remember to be on the lookout for my NFL newsletter which will be out on Sunday at 9 AM EST and sent directly to your email. Hitting at 63% for the subscribers so far this season and looking to keep it rolling. Let’s make some dough.