College Football Week 11: Is Purdue too Obvious?
When we go undefeated in the plays of the week we have to give the mic to 50 Cent. Coming off of a 4-0 week 10 in college football we have to give thanks to the teams that got us here. Shoutout to Purdue, UNC, Pitt, and Penn State for their contributions.
As you can see by the title of this newsletter, we have to continue to zig while everybody else zags. Everyone loved Michigan State, so we go with Purdue. Now everybody loves Purdue. They are the “giant killer”, 20.5 is too many points, etc. The Boilermakers have become too obvious. To go along with Ohio State, I have two other plays of the week as well. Usually for college football I have “other plays I like” but truthfully there are not too many that I am leaning towards outside of the top three as of writing this.
Play of the week #1: Ohio State -21 vs Purdue
I alluded too it a second ago, Purdue is the giant killer! If you are a ranked team and you are playing Purdue, you are finished. That is the talk all week and you never want to be aligned with the public on an underdog. As of writing this, an overwhelming 73% of the public is on Purdue. Now, let me take you back to when Purdue upset Iowa and had to take on Wisconsin the next week. Wisconsin lit them up for a 30-13 win. Frankly, it is hard for college kids at a program like Purdue to repeat a lights out performance two weeks in a row like the one they had against Michigan State. They are due to regress. Ohio State should be able to move the ball effectively and put up points this week as they rank 4th in yards per play in the country and 13th in points, while Purdue ranks 93rd in yards per play defensively and 100th in passing defense. The Buckeyes offense is a much different animal for Purdue compared to Michigan State and Iowa who have both, at best, been streaky this season.
Play of the week #2: Baylor +5.5 vs. Oklahoma
Baylor was in a classic sandwich spot a week ago and let their guard down. Coming off a win against Texas with Oklahoma on deck they were due to get caught and they did. Now, they will give Oklahoma their biggest test of the season. Baylor brings a tough defense to the table that should be able to challenge an Oklahoma offense that has been up and down all season, facing a true road test with a young quarterback. I also don’t trust this Sooners defense on the road facing the second best offense in the Big 12 in terms of total offense and points. Given that this is Baylor’s Super Bowl, I expect them to play their best game of the season and keep it inside the number. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if they win this game outright and cause even more chaos in college football.
Play of the week #3: Texas A&M -2.5 @ Ole Miss
I still believe that Ole Miss is getting a ton of respect publicly due to having Lane Kiffin, Matt Corral, and that explosive offense. The fact of the matter is that they have struggled as of late. Last week the offense put up 24 against Liberty and the week prior put up 20 against Auburn. They are just relying way too much on Matt Corral to stay in games and when they play teams with equal or more talent it is going to come back to hurt them. While Ole Miss has gone cold, the Aggies have started to heat up winning 4 straight and their latest being a 20-3 domination of a very good Auburn team. A&M ranks second in the country (behind historically great Georgia) in total defense and that should propel them to the win in this one. Gig ‘Em.
If you like the picks make sure to share with a friend! You can also follow me on my Action network HERE. You can see how I bet throughout the week and if there are any plays I add after the newsletter is sent out. For example, I had Pitt -6.5 on Thursday night so that obviously would not have been a newsletter play. Remember to be on the lookout for my NFL newsletter which will be out on Sunday at 9 AM EST. 18-10 for the subscribers so far this season and looking to keep it rolling. Let’s make some dough.