College Football Week 12: Chaos Runs Wild
After a 2-1 week we are now 6-1 over our last 7 in college football. As the weather gets colder, we get hotter on Chuck’s locks. I intend to keep the train rolling as we head rapidly towards bowl season with three bets that I love for this weekend.
Play of the week #1: Clemson -4.5 vs. Wake Forest
This is the ultimate sucker game in college football. You have a Clemson team that has been trashed left and right by the media for falling off (despite being 7-3 with two of the losses coming to Georgia and Pitt) facing one of the great stories in college football in the Demon Deacons who are ranked and staring an ACC title berth in the face. Weird that Clemson is a 4.5 point favorite right? Also weird that 71% of the public is on Wake Forest but the line moved from Clemson -3.5 to Clemson -4.5? That is exactly why I love Clemson in this one, it just makes no sense. Where Clemson presents problems for Wake Forest is that Wake has not played a defense this talented all year and I can see them having issues moving the football. On the other side I don’t trust this Wake Forest defense one bit and they could hell a struggling Clemson offense wake up from it’s slumber. With Wake Forest punching above their weight all season I can see them suffering a big time loss to a much more talented Clemson team by a touchdown plus. I could see a Clemson team with no national title to play for thrive on the opportunity to just ruin someone else’s season in their conference.
Play of the week #2: Kansas State -1 vs. Baylor
This is a classic let down spot for Baylor. As many of you know we had them last week +5.5, now it is time to sell our stock. Any time a team has a huge win against a traditional conference power you have to fade them the next week. Baylor was all juiced up for big, bad, Oklahoma at home and now have to go into Manhattan to face an unranked Kansas State team, on their senior day, with all of the motivation to ruin their season. It is very difficult as a college team that isn’t used to success to be able to rise to the occasion against an inferior opponent after leaving it all on the field the week prior. All the while, Dave Aranda is being mentioned in the same breath as the LSU coaching job. Between this and the overwhelmingly positive press, this team is going to be smelling itself all week. Why I like Kansas State here is because they rank 13th in rushing defense and 21st in points allowed. hey also rank 25th in yards per play against a Baylor defense that ranks 128th in red zone efficiency. They should be able to take advantage of Baylor this week and find a way to win.
Play of the week #3: Utah -3 vs. Oregon
The number 3 team being an underdog on the road tells me everything I need to know about what Vegas thinks of this team, and Vegas doesn’t make mistakes. Utah is a very tough place to play and they lust for ruining Oregon’s season. What I love about Utah is that they have a top 25 rushing defense, which is what Oregon has to do to be successful as Anthony Brown just has not been a very good passer this season. Oregon ranks 95th in the country in passing yards, 96th in Redzone efficiency, and 94th in yards per play. When you look past the lofty #3 ranking and see these stats, you realize that it just does not get the job done. Utah QB Cameron Rising has only thrown 2 INTs all season. I love being able to trust a QB who makes great decision at home in an upset spot and will lay the three points with the Utes here confidently.
If you like the picks make sure to share with a friend! You can also follow me on my Action network HERE. You can see how I bet throughout the week like for the Thursday Night and Monday Night Football games that I may not post on Reddit. Remember to be on the lookout for my NFL newsletter which will be out on Sunday at 9 AM EST. Hitting at 65% in the NFL for the subscribers so far this season and looking to keep it rolling. Let’s make some dough.