College Football Week 13: Hail to the Victors
Alright we have made it to rivalry week. How quickly things have come and gone here in college football as we get one step closer to figuring out who will be playing in the college football playoff, New Year’s 6 Bowls, and the other fun bowls such as the Cheez-It bowl. Last week, we had another nice 2-1 day in the newsletter thanks to dominant performances by Utah an d Clemson. This week there is one game that I love and it just so happens to be “The Game.” Let’s get into it.
Play of the week #1: Michigan +7.5 vs. Ohio State
This is it folks. A shot at the Big 10 championship and subsequently a trip to the CFP is on the line in Ann Arbor. Now if you follow me on Action Network (will link below) you would know I got this game at +8.5 on Wednesday afternoon but I still love it at +7.5 and would still take it at +7. Here’s why I love this matchup for Michigan and why I believe they keep it inside the number. What Ohio State does really well is throw the football, they have a tremendous group of receivers. What Michigan does really well is defend the pass. They rank second in the conference in pass defense, are third in total defense, and give up the third least PPG. Led by potential Top 2 pick Aidan Hutchinson, this defensive line can get after the quarterback and I expect them to make life difficult on C.J. Stroud. As good as Stroud is and as much as I like him, he is still a true freshman starting on the road, in a hostile environment, and is playing arguably the biggest game of his life. On top of the great matchup Michigan has defensively, they should be able to move the ball offensively with great success. Ohio State ranks 99th in points, 116th on third down, 101st in rushing, and 122nd in the Red Zone. Given a true freshman quarterback and the defenses struggles, I do not see how you can lay 7.5-8 points on the road in a rivalry game like this. Take the Wolverines with confidence to stay in the number.
Play of the week #2: Alabama-Auburn Over 57
It sucks Bo Nix isn’t playing but the Iron Bowl is the Iron Bowl and I will enjoy my time watching it. This game sets up perfectly for the over because Alabama can light it up offensively. Through 11 games this year, Alabama has only scored less than 40 points twice. I feel good about my chances of them getting to that number again, which means we need 18 from Auburn to cover. Which, I feel pretty good about us getting since Alabama’s defense has not been great. This team has needed to outscore it’s opponent this year unlike Georgia who will just suffocate you. Despite no Bo Nix, Tank Bigsby should be able to have success on the ground, and Auburn is in a position where they won’t be settling for field goals and punting. They only have 6 wins and are going to be aggressive as hell to beat their bitter rivals. I mean, what do they have to lose? Field goals ain’t beating Bama, let’s get the over.
Play of the week #3: Notre Dame -20 vs. Stanford
Last week we saw a Notre Dame team hang 55 on poor Georgia Tech. Notre Dame is in a position where they can still get into the playoffs and they will be trying to hang it on people. Stanford is 3-8 and have just been getting killed in November losing games by 45, 21, and 30. They won’t have an answer for a Notre Dame offense that has really evolved this season as Kyren Williams and Michael Mayer have become a nightmare to defend for defenses. This Irish offensive line has really matured and as long as they keep Jack Coan upright they should pick apart this team. Notre Dame’s defense should also be able to suffocate Stanford as they haven’t allowed a single touchdown in three November games. Expect a route in California Saturday night.
If you like the picks make sure to share with a friend! You can also follow me on my Action network HERE. You can see how I bet throughout the week and if there are any plays I add after the newsletter is sent out. Remember to be on the lookout for my NFL newsletter which will be out on Sunday at 9 AM EST. 22-12 for the subscribers so far this season and looking to keep it rolling. Let’s make some dough.