College Football Week 8: Fight On For Ol' SC
1-2 week 7. Now 12-9-1 on the season. Miami was the perfect encapsulation of a high variance dog. They were in the game but turned it over 4 times including once at the one-yard line. Kinda looked like they quit later in the game. You gotta take the good with the bad when you back those kinds of teams. Let’s get into my best bets of week 8.
Play #1: USC -6.5 vs Utah (Fanduel)
You are never as good or as bad as you look in primetime. USC just got their shit kicked in by Notre Dame, but are 6.5-point favorites? Surely, Utah is too easy… that’s why I am backing the Trojans. If you look past the final score, you will see USC turned it over 5 times, surrendered a special teams TD, and a defensive TD. Turnovers are largely a luck-based statistic, defensive and special teams touchdowns are “flukey” and Caleb Williams ain’t throwing 3 INTs again. It was just one of those nights for Souhern Cal against a Notre Dame team that was also coming off an embarrassing primetime loss. USC doesn’t profile necessarily as a team you want to back as a favorite because they don’t play defense, but I am not sure that really matters much here. Utah just doesn’t have an offense, without Cam Rising, that scares you. The Utes have been switching between Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson at quarterback. Bryson Barnes has a QBR of 38 and Nate Johnson has a QBR of 45.8. Utah is also one of those teams that is way different on the road than when they are in the comfort of Rice-Eccles Stadium. USC will be able to score on a Utah defense that is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense. I just don’t know if Utah has the horses to keep up if they get down double digits. This game is also a massive revenge game for USC after losing to Utah twice last year including in the PAC 12 title game. From what the line tells me, to the matchup, to the spot, everything points to a big Southern Cal win Saturday night.
Play #2: Indiana +6 vs Rutgers (Draft Kings)
Going back to the well to fade Rutgers here. If you watched that game last week, they should have lost outright to Michigan State but got a fumbled punt into the end zone in the 4th quarter which opened the floodgates for a comeback win after trailing 24-6. Indiana has one of the worst offenses in the country and recently changed its offensive coordinator, so I think they had a great opportunity to make some fixes over the bye week. Like last week, I just don’t feel like Rutgers is good enough to be a touchdown favorite over a conference opponent in it’s weight class, especially on the road. If you look at Indiana’s schedule I think their record of 2-5 could be a bit misleading considering they have already had to play Louisville, Michigan, Ohio State, and Maryland so they are taking a step down in class here. With a low total of 39.5, points should be at a premium, so I’ll take the home dog.
Play #3: Navy +10 vs Air Force
I don’t know if you guys think I order this from my favorite to least favorite play. There’s no rhyme or reason to why they get ordered the way they do, but if you are one of those people, this is my favorite play. First matchup of two service academies with the new CFB clock rules. This total is set at 33.5 so points will be at a premium. So many things have to go right (or wrong) for Air Force to cover a double digit spread on the road when possessions will be so limited. Air Force is in the bottom 30 of defensive stuff rate so I think Navy can find some success on the ground here. Air Force is playing in the eastern time zone so it’s a 10 AM body clock game. Navy is going to have a sold out crowd for the first Commander-in-Chief trophy clash of the season so I think there is a decent enough home field advantage. Everything is pointing to the Midshipmen here. Let’s take the home dog catching the points in what could be a game that’s over by 1:15 PM EST.
If you like the picks and breakdowns, make sure to share with a friend below. Big day coming in the NFL tomorrow. Let’s make some dough.