College Football Week 9: Bounce Back
Okay if you are a loyal newsletter subscriber, I was god awful in college football last wick. If you just read for the NFL, I have been making money hand over fist hitting at 61% as you know. I have to be better on Saturdays. That starts this week. It is a huge week in college football, specifically in the Big 10, and I feel very good about my picks for the people. I am channeling my inner Babe Ruth and calling my shot. I will hit 2/3 on my plays of the week it has to happen. It will happen. Let’s make some money.
Play of the week #1: Michigan-Michigan State U 50.5
So if you follow me on Action Network (will link below) I was lucky to get this at 51 early in the week. I do still love this play down to 50. 50 is a key number in the football world so getting 50.5 feels right. Why I love this play is because these are two stereotypical Big Ten teams. They both rely on stout defenses that are some of the best in the country. Michigan is one of the worst passing offenses in the country and Michigan State has running back Kenneth Walker. We should see a ton of running in this game. The last item important for this under is pace of play. Michigan ranks 100th in tempo. An undefeated in-state rivalry just feels like a hard fought under. Think somewhere in the area of 24-20.
Play of the week #2: Wisconsin -3 (-120 on Barstool Sportsbook) vs. Iowa
Buying the hook because it is cheap and I refuse to lose if Wisconsin wins by 3. This game should be disgusting to watch and I probably won’t. I have to take and play Wisconsin out of principle. What’s the principle you ask? Wisconsin is an unranked home favorite playing the number 9 team in the country. What people don’t tell you about Iowa is that their offense might be the worst in all of college football. They generate somewhere around 40% of their points from their defense. Going into Camp Randall is a tall task and I trust Wisconsin’s offense a heck of a lot more than Iowa. You could also argue Wisconsin has a better defense than Iowa. With 75% of the public Iowa, you have to take Wisconsin in this one. Vegas isn’t in this thing to go broke, folks.
Play of the week #3: Auburn -2.5 vs Ole Miss
This analogy won’t be great but follow me. What Matt Corral is doing right now for Ole Miss is akin to what Lamar Jackson is doing for the Ravens. I know, Matt Corral is not Lamar Jackson but think about it. Both squads are banged up and they are relying so much on their quarterback play. At some point that is going to catch up to you. Auburn has shown the ability to light up the score board and also has a much better defense than Ole Miss does. Given they are at home I like Auburn a lot in this matchup. Ole Miss is almost at that level under Lane Kiffin where they can go into Auburn at night and take a win, but I just do not see it yet. Bo Nix has been much improved this year and is much better at home. I think Tank Bigsby has a big game against this Rebels team as well.
Other plays I like:
Mississippi -.5 vs. Kentucky: Weird line, something is up here.
Houston -1 vs. SMU: SMU’s defense is so poor it will hurt them in a road game like this
Notre Dame -3.5 vs. UNC: Not particularly in love with ND but UNC is so bad. ND beat them a year ago at their place when UNC had much more talent
Ohio State-Penn State O 61: Ohio State’s offense is humming and Penn State has enough playmakers to get close to 4 TDs in this one. They were so embarrassing last week they have to be better
If you like the picks make sure to share with a friend! You can also follow me on my Action network HERE. You can see how I bet throughout the week and if there are any plays I add after the newsletter is sent out. I am up 20.61 units (18.37% ROI) on the NFL season (as of 10/28/2021 when I am writing this). Remember to be on the lookout for my NFL newsletter which will be out on Sunday at 9 AM EST. 13-8 (61%) for the subscribers so far this season and looking to keep it rolling. Have three games that I love for tomorrow. Let’s make some dough.