College Football Week 9
CFB certainly did not go as well as the NFL last week as we managed to go an ugly 0-3 now 12-12-1 on the season in the amateur division. Never really felt good about any of them as the games were going on then got a kick in the dick on the Navy failed 2-point conversion late. The good news is that we are due for positive regression. Let’s get into my best bets.
Play #1: Kentucky +4 vs Tennessee
This is a prime spot to fade Tennessee and buy low on Kentucky. Tennessee just blew a multiple score lead against their biggest rival last Saturday a week after an emotional win against Texas A&M. I would imagine that loss really ripped the guts out of those players since it essentially ended their SEC title hopes. Given the way that game went it is only human nature for them to not be able to get up to the same level of intensity facing an “inferior program” in Kentucky. As far as Kentucky goes, they are coming off of a bye which should help them clean things up while Tennessee is playing back-to-back road games. Kentucky is also coming off of two horrible losses to Georgia 51-13 and Mizzou 38-21. The bye should have been a nice time to reset and having a ranked Volunteers squad coming to your place for a primetime game makes me think the Wildcats are going to be very motivated here. To me there is a significant motivation edge with Kentucky as Tennessee is in a big letdown spot. Joe Milton and this offense is far too inconsistent to back with less motivation than their opponent on the road. Give me the Cats to keep it inside the number behind their great defense and rushing attack.
Play #2: UCLA -14.5 vs Colorado (Bet MGM)
This isn’t going to be an incredibly in-depth handicap here. When we look at Colorado and their wins this year it was against a 4-4 TCU team, Nebraska who is a disaster, a 3-4 Colorado State team, and a 1-6 Arizona State team. None of their wins have aged well but people are still going to bet this Colorado team because they have the hype and all that. They also hung tough with USC who lost both games they’ve played against teams with a pulse. Therefore, the number is probably lower than it should be. Colorado can’t run the ball to begin with and they are facing a UCLA team that has been excellent defensively this year. Just look at what they did against Washington State, allowing 10 points (Wazzou had a pick 6 to make it 17) and 3.7 yards per play. If you want to look at common opponents, UCLA beat Stanford 42-7 on the road while we all know what happened with Colorado against the Cardinal. I see no resistance coming from Colorado against this UCLA offense and once UCLA gets up and Colorado becomes one dimensional things will only get worse for them, I’d imagine. The only fear with this game is a backdoor cover. I just don’t see how UCLA isn’t up for this game and unless they throw up all over themselves, they should never be trailing. Let’s lay it here with the Bruins and you can probably wait for this to come down to 14 or 13.5 as I would think Colorado money will keep coming in.
Play #3: Purdue +1.5 vs Nebraska (Bet MGM)
2-5 Purdue is only a 1.5-point underdog on the road? This line screams Boilermakers in this one. Why is this a good spot for Purdue? For one Purdue is in the first year of a new era under Ryan Walters so having their bye last week was probably a good time to make some adjustments and this team will only get better and more cohesive as the season goes on. More importantly, this is a fade of Nebraska who has been hit hard by the injury bug. They are missing three starting offensive linemen and their leading receiver. Matt Rhule even said this week "I've never had anything like this" referring to the amount of injuries that have piled up. Let’s do what the line is telling us and back Purdue as a road pup.