College Hoops Best Bet 3/10: UCLA on Upset Alert?
Penn State gets home with the outright win against Illinois. 23-10 now over our last 33 college hoops bets here. Let’s keep this thing rolling with a late night snack in the PAC.
Play of the Day: Oregon +5.5 vs UCLA (Fanduel)
For as up and down as Oregon’s season has been they have started playing much better basketball down the stretch having won four in a row. They did get swept by UCLA this year but if you recall they hung tough and were in both of those games losing by scores of 7 and 9. The difference for me this third go ‘round is that UCLA does not have Jaylen Clark who is their best defender, and Oregon has not only one of the best offenses in the PAC 12, but in the entire country at 28th. The Ducks achieved this ranking while playing the 9th hardest schedule of defenses in adjusted efficiency. We saw last night that Colorado gave the Bruins all that they could handle by leading at the half and shooting 50% from the field. The difference in the game? UCLA shot 31 free throws while Colorado shot 11. Why is this important? 1. Free throw regression. 2. Oregon only picks up 15 personal fouls per game which is good for 32nd in all of college basketball. Statistically speaking, I don’t think UCLA is going to be shooting as many free throws tonight and will have to earn everything. I think we also have a slight motivational edge towards Oregon as this is truly do or die for them while UCLA’s ultimate prize is playing for a national title, and more likely than not, they are already slotted in as a 1 seed in a region. Getting to the dance healthy is their biggest worry. I think tonight is when we really see how fatal the Clark loss is and when you combine that with a slight motivational edge, I think Oregon can stay inside this number for us. With N’faly Dante saying he is playing, I am comfortable playing this.