Elite 8 Day 1: Blue Devils Have Championship DNA
Another day of betting on college hoops get excited people! After a clean sweep of the sweet 16 we have found ourselves at 5-1 for the tournament and 10-4 in our last 14 plays of the day in college hoops. Needless to say the confidence is at an all-time high as we enter an incredible double header of Houston-Nova and Duke-Arkansas with trips to the Final Four at stake. After back to back days of taking unders, I will be changing pace a bit and taking a side in Duke-Arkansas.
Play of the Day: Duke -4 vs. Arkansas
I got 3.5 at Bet MGM but for the sake of the most widely available line, I will rock with 4 points here. I would not play higher than that.
After embarrassing themselves against UNC and Virginia Tech in the span of a week at the beginning of March, Duke has played like a champion ever since. They were trailing with less than 5 minutes to play against Michigan State and Texas Tech, and managed to hit big shot after big shot to win those games late. They didn’t miss a field goal in the final 8 minutes of play the other night against Texas Tech, who has the best defense in the country. If they can do that against the Red Raiders, they can do that against anybody, which is why I think this is a tough matchup for Arkansas. Both Duke and Arkansas love to play up tempo, but Duke has the 2nd ranked offense on KenPom while Arkansas has the 53rd ranked offense on KenPom. I simply don’t think Arkansas has enough offense here to keep up with Duke, and even though they have a great defense, I am not sure it will outweigh how bad their offense can be. They managed to shoot 27% against New Mexico State and win, then against Gonzaga, JD Notae took 29 shots to get to 21 points. Their offense relies way too heavily on Notae to be great, and if he isn’t great today, I can’t see Arkansas scoring enough to stay inside this number. Playing that style does not win basketball games this late in the tournament. I am more than willing to bet against Notae taking a ton of shots and being great, and if I am wrong, I can live with it. An important thing to remember too is that -4 is essentially a pick ‘em in basketball. If Duke is up 3 late and gets fouled we can get free throws to help us cover. It is not an enormous number and this is a good enough free throw shooting team to be confident in them icing a game late. Take Duke laying 4 points with confidence today.
Three days left of the tournament so expect three more newsletters. If you like the picks and analysis make sure to share with a friend below. You can also leave a comment as I am always down to discuss sports betting. Let’s make some dough.