Three straight winners on the second weekend of the Big Dance has now brought us to 6-1 on the tourney and 11-4 in our last 15 college hoops bets. As you can see by the headline, I have to be the bad guy today and fade the most beloved team in the country today. Everyone has their cross to bear I suppose, and mine is betting against Doug Edert.
Play of the Day: UNC -8.5 vs Saint Peter’s
Saint Peter’s is a great story but it can’t possibly keep this up, especially against a team as hot as UNC. You know my old saying, you never want to be on the public side of an underdog, and after Friday night where the public robbed Vegas blind, it is almost certainly going to switch today. Similarly to Duke just being the hot team offensively, I don’t care how good this St. Peter’s defense is, I just don’t think they can keep up with the Tar Heels scoring. The Peacocks are trendy right now, but they are the 216th ranked offense on KenPom for a reason. I think Armando Bacot presents a difficult challenge on the glass for St. Peter’s that is going to hurt them eventually (it didn’t against Kentucky or Purdue). The way the Tar Heels spread the floor is something that the Peacocks have not seen yet either. Kentucky and Purdue play through big guys that clog up the paint. Having a weapon like Brady Manek on UNC creates unique matchup problems that not many college teams have in a stretch 4. UNC will put up 25+ threes again and if they can hit double digits for the 4th consecutive game we will have a great chance at covering. St. Peter’s just doesn’t have the shot makers that UCLA and Baylor have that helped them stick around. Why I am playing this today is because UNC is as hot offensively as any team in the country, and St. Peter’s has to have some sort of regression in the way that they are executing. They were a 15 seed for a reason and have a severe talent disadvantage.
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Just found you yesterday. Good insight. Nice write up. Glad to be here.