Favorite College Football Win Total, Conference Champ, and Heisman Futures for 2023
Small hiatus through the month of June. As my long time subs know I don’t get into baseball betting. As far as betting goes in the summer I am just doing college football and NFL prep. In case you missed it I had my first NFL futures post right after the draft that you can read here.
A few housekeeping notes. I hate Twitter, but am going to give threads a shot. If I get to 100 followers by week 1 of the CFB season, I will use that account to post betting facts, trends, and live tweeting (threading?) the games so that we can sweat out these bets together in real time. It also gives me a better opportunity to interact with you guys, which I do enjoy. Yes, I will still be posting all of my plays on Reddit.
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Let’s get into my CFB future bets.
Win Total- Clemson over 9.5 wins -170 (Fanduel)
Remember Clemson’s down year last year? Sure, it was down compared to their 2016 and 2018 national title teams but despite the perceived dysfunction they finished the regular season 10-2 and won the ACC championship. Now they turn the page from the up and down DJ Uiagalelei to a 5 star QB in Cade Klubnik, and made maybe the best coordinator hire of the offseason bringing in Garret Riley to run the offense. Why I really like this win total to go over is that the ACC just isn’t very good. It is Clemson, Florida State and then everyone else. Clemson also has a 72% blue chip ratio. What does that mean? It is the percentage of 5 and 4 star players on a roster compared to the rest of the players. That is the 5th best BCR in the country. In short, this team is still loaded with talent. There are two games on the Tigers schedule that will test them and that is Florida State and Notre Dame. Both of those games will be played in Death Valley. Worst case scenario they lose both and we are still over the 9.5 win threshold. I’ll trust Dabo Swinney’s squad to at least get a split in those games and take care of a less-than ACC in their remaining games. I think the narrative that Clemson is “down” will further motivate this team and this program to prove everyone wrong. If they don’t go over it would be a true disaster season in Clemson, SC.
Arizona State Under 5 Wins -160 (Draft Kings)
Last year Arizona State went a dismal 3-9. Now they hire Kenny Dillingham who I am buying stock in long term but them getting to bowl eligibility seems like a long shot this year. The Sun Devils bring in 50(!) new players between the transfer portal and freshmen. One of those transfers will likely be starting quarterback Drew Pyne who started most of the season at Notre Dame last year. I really don’t think Pyne is a good quarterback and you could see how tough it was for the Irish to generate offense last season when there only threat was a good running game and Michael Mayer. I believe that the reason OC Tommy Reese is now at Alabama is because Nick Saban saw how he was able to scheme around Pyne’s deficiencies as a player and make that offense more productive than it should have been. The way USC performed last year with a team full of transfers is not normal. Kenny Dillingham is not Lincoln Riley and Drew Pyne certainly isn’t Caleb Williams. With the competition around the PAC 12 being better than it has been in years I think it is worth paying the -160 price to bet against this rag tag group making a three win improvement to bowl eligibility.
Conference Champion Futures: Texas +125 and USC +200
It doesn’t take any real talent or analysis to pick the favorites to win their conferences but hear me out on why these specifically make sense. What both of these conferences have in common is that there are no divisions that determine who plays in the title game like in the SEC and Big 10. Therefore, we just need to be top 2 with the most talented teams in their respective conferences to have a shot. I like my chances here. For Texas, their talent is head and shoulders above the rest of the Big 12. The only team with comparable talent is Oklahoma and I just can’t put trust into Brent Venables. The other two big threats, Kansas State and TCU, should take a step back. This is especially true now that they are the “hunted” which is a spot that is unfamiliar to them. In case you missed it, TCU lost 8 players to the NFL Draft. They just don’t have the depth to replace guys like that and win 12 games again, on top of the fact that everything seemed to go their way last year late in games. In year three Sark has “his guys” in and this is the year they take that next step. Again, Texas has a 70% BCR, and outside of OU no one in that conference touches their talent. I wanted to back Texas this season, and I like them over 9.5 wins. I think this is essentially the same bet but now I have it at plus odds and I don’t have to worry about the Alabama game. If Ewers can take that next step, this is a team that can seriously compete for a national title.
For USC, we have the best player in college football on our side in Caleb Williams. Last year they were up 17-3 in the PAC 12 title game when Williams suffered a serious hamstring injury and couldn’t move. From then on it was all Utes en route to their second straight Pac 12 title. Unless something unforeseen happens this will be a top 5 offense in college football with Williams and Lincoln Riley calling plays. The big question is the defense. I think this defense takes that next step and here is why. In the offseason they added the best defensive linemen in the portal, Bear Alexander, who is a transfer from Georgia. Overall, they had the third best transfer class. I also think Alex Grinch has shown that he is a good defensive coordinator that will elevate this team this year. Each stop he has been with Wazzou, Oklahoma, and even USC last year, the defenses had year over year improvement under Grinch. Just take a look at USC’s schedule here:
They essentially have a 6 week pre-season where they can really get the defense working cohesively for what is an absolute gauntlet of a final 6 games.
Remember, this is a team that went from 4-8 to 11-1. It really wasn’t that great of a roster but Caleb Williams was just that good. Now they have a second offseason to load up on real players, which has translated to a BCR of 52% (15th in CFB just behind Michigan). Just like with Texas, this is a team that I like their win total over 9.5 wins, but now I don’t have to worry about the Notre Dame game and I get better odds. I don’t see a world where they aren’t in the PAC 12 title game, and in that game I probably won’t have better odds than 2:1. Therefore, this is a price worth taking for me.
Heisman Futures: Joe Milton 25/1 Carson Beck 20/1 Blake Corum 30/1 JJ McCarthy 30/1
I’ll sprinkle a couple of Heisman futures every year around a basic premise: Who is going to contend for a National Title? And whoever won the award last year, do not bet them. Yes I think Williams is the best player in college football but no one has won it in back to back years since Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. Given the history I’m fairly confident we can rule out Williams.
Just take a look at last year’s Heisman Finalists: CJ Stroud, Max Duggan, Caleb Williams, and Stetson Bennett. All of these guys were on 0/1 loss teams with a shot at playing in the CFP by the time Heisman voting took place.
I happen to think Michigan and Georgia are the two best teams in the country this season. Therefore, I took both of their quarterbacks. I also took Blake Corum because he ran for 1,400 yards and 18 touchdowns before he got injured. Those are Heisman numbers and with their weak schedule there is no reason he can’t do it again. This is my way of backing Michigan this season without taking their team odds. Joe Milton I added in because he is a fantastic athlete with a rocket launcher attached to his shoulder. He is also in a Josh Heupel offense which allows QBs to put up ridiculous numbers, so he could be in consideration as we head towards the end of the season. The Vols have Georgia and Bama on the schedule giving Milton every shot to have a Heisman moment and put his fingerprints on this college football season. Remember, Hendon Hooker getting injured is probably the only reason he wasn’t a finalist.
Given the criteria that I laid out I would not take guys that are just great players, but they need to be on teams that have a legitimate shot to win the national title. So as good as he is, do not take Drake Maye to win the Heisman as UNC just won’t be in the hunt.
These are my favorite CFB futures for the 2023 season. Remember to follow me on Threads and to check out Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life and The Football Guys newsletter for all of your fantasy football advice. Subscribing and reading their newsletter supports me and keep this newsletter free. As always, thanks for reading and I am excited to get this football season underway in a few short weeks.