Four teams, three games, and two nights remain in the college basketball season. So far for the tournament we are 7-1 and have won 4 straight bets. The goal is 9-1 but we have to take it one day at a time and one bet at a time. On the road to 9-1 I will be wagering on the Tobacco Road rivalry.
Play of the Day: Duke -4 vs. North Carolina
This is the all-time greatest rubber match in the history of college sports. It has been covered ad nauseum, and I think there is a real chance that Duke cruises in this one. I believe that UNC beating Duke in Coach K’s last home game was an anomaly. There was way more pressure on Duke to perform and it took RJ Davis, Armando Bacot, Brady Manek, and Caleb Love each scoring 20 points to get the win. They scored 55 second half points and shot 14 more free throws than Duke. I will bet against both of those things happening again. Because of that night, I believe we are getting Duke at a discount here. I think the first matchup in Chapel Hill where Duke won by 20 is a much better indication of the talent level discrepancy between these two teams. Once Bacot got into foul trouble, UNC never had a shot and had a very inconsistent shooting night. Duke clearly had more talent, and that hasn’t changed. UNC has been hot in the tourney, but they were inconsistent all year offensively and I do not think they can keep this up. There has to be a moment when UNC comes back down to Earth, and that will happen in this game. Duke has the number 1 ranked offense on Ken Pom and UNC has the 18th. The defenses are similarly ranked but I will be backing the best offense in the country rather than hoping UNC can stay hot. With a spread like 4 this is essentially a pick ‘em as we just need a small lead late and some free throws to cover. When I think about either of these teams winning this game, I keep thinking that UNC HAS TO have a monster night shooting. Why would I bet on that happening? If I need a team to hit 10+ three to cover 4 points, I will lose that bet more often than I win. Duke has been the best team in the country since the tournament started. They found something at the end of that Texas Tech game that has given them the confidence to close games and play championship basketball. Remember this for tonight too: Coach K publicly scolded his team after the loss in Durham earlier this month. You think these kids are dying to get revenge? I will be backing the more talented team and the coach with 1,200 career wins to cover 4 points for us today.
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Faded this so hard and couldn’t be happier