NBA Playoffs: Back Defenses in WCF Game 1
Oh my god he does write about the NBA! That’s right folks I have been sucked back into the NBA as I have really enjoyed these playoffs. As much as I have enjoyed seeing LeBron dominate for over a decade it is nice to see more “teams” make runs. These final four teams have star power across the board and I am ready for the remainder of the post season. These playoff posts will not come every day like my March Madness posts, but when I like a game I am going to let you guys know. Let’s get things started out west as Mavs-Warriors game 1 is tonight.
Play of the Day: Warriors-Mavs Under 214.5
This number is too high for me when looking at these defenses. This season the Mavs ranked second in opponents points per game and the Warriors ranked 4th. Both teams use the three point line as well as any team in the league, but they also defend it as well as anybody in the league. Golden State is 5th in three point defense and Dallas is 3rd in three point defense. The three ball is obviously an under killer and knowing how well these teams defend it make me comfortable betting against a three point barrage.
As far as matchups go I love the Warriors ability to guard a Mavs offense that plays a ton of 5 out. With Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green the Warriors have the athletes to be able to switch pick and rolls on the perimeter and not get taken advantage of like we saw the Mavs do to Phoenix in Game 7. The Mavs got so many open looks because Ayton couldn’t defend outside of the paint, leading to easy layups or wide open shots out of a drive-and-kick. The Mavs shot 56% in game 7, so I think they are due for some shooting regression in this one. They have also played 13 of a possible 14 games and are on the road, meaning that some tired legs could impact shooting. The first game of a series is typically a feel out game, and when we get two elite defenses matched up with each other, I will back them to impose their will on the outcome of the game. These offenses will heat up as the series moves along, but feel comfortable betting the under in this one.