NCAA Tournament at a Glance: Futures Worth a Look
Generally when I send out a newsletter to all of you wonderful people it is a gameday morning with a pick (or picks) that I like and why I like it. Today I figured I would do something different as I want to take a macro view of this tournament bracket and see what kind of value we can find before games tip off on Thursday.
Now, if you follow me on on my Action network (HERE), you would know that I have Kentucky +1000 and Purdue +1050 from earlier this season to win the national title. Truth be told, I do not like Purdue anymore so I do not think that is worth it, but Kentucky at +800 (FOX BET) may be worth a look here for you guys. What this post will be all about is a national championship future and two Final Four futures that I think are worth considering for the value that they have now that we have a bracket.
Kansas +900 National Champion (FOX BET)
Fox Bet has tremendous value as many other books have Kansas around +700 so I feel like I am getting some extra juice which is why it is worth having multiple sports books. First off, Kansas is a fantastic basketball team. They currently rank 6th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense on Ken Pom. I like that they have two super talented guards in Christian Braun and Ochai Agbagi, and that they are a veteran roster. I tend to put a lot of weight inti experienced players come this time of year and this group for Kansas is a deep veteran squad led by a coach that has won a national championship before. They check all of the boxes for me as a team that can cut the nets down in New Orleans. As far as their path goes I think they have a very favorable draw. The 2 seed in their region is an Auburn team that is stumbling into the tournament and has proven to be significantly worse on the road or neutral site. The 3 seed is Wisconsin who has overachieved all season and has now lost two straight, and the 4 seed is Providence, who just like Wisconsin, has overachieved all season and as a result is over-seeded. At least for Wisconsin, Johnny Davis is one of the best players in the country, but Providence just does not have the horses to keep up with any of these teams that I mentioned. As far as paths for one seeds go I love the draw for the Jayhawks ore than any other one seed. If they can get to the final four we have some hedge opportunities for ourselves as well.
Texas Tech to make Final Four +600 (Barstool)
No I am not a shill for the Big 12 I swear. This Texas Tech team has the best defense in the country, and knowing I have that on my side means that I have a chance to make a run. Buyer beware, they will have stretches where they just don’t score for 6 minutes which is infuriating. Why I like Texas Tech again has to do with the region they are in. They will play Alabama, Notre Dame, or Rutgers in the second round, and truthfully, Rutgers is the only team that worries me of that trio. Alabama is way too undisciplined and Texas tech won’t let them get comfortable enough offensively, It is a terrible contrast of styles for the Crimson Tide. Rutgers at least plays that “rock fight” style that will make that game close but the Red Raiders have more talent. To me, Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country and the worst 2 seed out there so I like that they are in my path. We have already seen them wilt under the pressure of the ACC championship and Coach K’s last game, if Texas tech is able to score against any team, it will be Duke and their 44th ranked defense on Ken Pom. I am a huge believer in Gonzaga but I think they will succumb to a physical team that just wears them down, whether that is Texas tech or another team down the line. We saw this last year in the national championship game that Mark Few’s teams just don’t handle teams that want to “get in your shorts” well. I hate to use the “s” word to describe a team but the Bulldogs are pretty soft. As far as paths and matchups go, I think taking a flier on Texas Tech here at +600 to win four games is really good value for this tournament. They have proven they can beat any team in the country.
Villanova +550 to Make Final Four (Fanduel)
What makes Villanova intriguing at this number is that unless you are in the Big East you have not played a team like Nova this year. What I mean is that they play great defense, take exclusively good shots, and don’t turn the ball over. For my money they are the most fundamentally sound team in the country. For the most part these highly seeded teams either have more talent than their opponents or play teams that beat themselves. In other words, we can sit comfortably at this price knowing that Villanova won’t beat themselves and it will take Arizona and Tennessee’s best shot to beat them. Villanova has an All-American senior guard in Collin Gillespie that will control the pace of every game and get the offense organized. They have plenty of shooting from Caleb Daniels, Jermaine Samuels, Justin Moore and Brandon Slater. This will be an incredibly tough out for teams in the South region. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes has only made it past the first weekend ONCE in NINE tournament trips since he made the Elite 8 in 2008 with Texas. Arizona hasn’t been to the tournament since the 2017-2018 season, so suddenly being a one seed is a major step. Villanova may not have the talent edge, but they certainly have the coaching and experience edge, and that is not something to overlook. This is why I think Villanova is worth a play at +550 to win the South Region.
I will have no official newsletter plays for the “First Four” but I will be back Thursday and Friday morning with my favorite plays of the round of 64. Let’s make some dough.