NFL Week 11: He's Baaaaaaaacccckkkk
Very solid week in the NFL for us in week 10. 2-1 is right where we want to be as we are now 20-11 on the season for you guys. Special shoutout to the Vikings for winning outright as well as the Saints for missing the two point conversion to keep us inside the number and not have to worry about overtime. The game we lost was the Las Vegas Raiders. That game showed me that the Chiefs may have figured it out, but after this week we will have a much better idea. If they beat Dallas the Chiefs are officially back. Although I have no official play in that game I do have three plays in the NFL once again for you guys. Let’s get into it.
Play of the week #1: Carolina Panthers -3 vs Washington Football Team
I like betting spots like this against bad football teams. WFT is coming off of a huge win against Tom Brady at home where everything that could go right did for them. Hell, Taylor Heinecke lead a 10 minute game ending drive. This is an offense that ranks bottom 10 in passing, points, and red zone efficiency. Due for a regression, they now visit a Panthers defense that ranks top 10 in points, first downs, third downs, and yards per play. I also love the Panthers having a healthy McCaffery going against a WFT defense that is now missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young. WFT loves to get pressure with their front four and are now missing their two best guys. The Panthers should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides in this one and I love them to cover 3 points here.
Play of the week #2: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
If you follow my college newsletter this game falls in the category of Clemson vs. Wake Forest. Luckily for me, I got Minnesota at +2.5 early in the week (which is why you should follow me on Action Network (linked below), but I still love this pick here as I think they win the game outright. 72% of the money has come in on the Packers yet the line has moved towards Minnesota. That is not how an efficient gambling market is supposed to work. Minnesota has a very good offense and they have been the best team in the NFL at taking care of the football. I think the Packers are a very good team, but they have yet to look phased by the number of injuries that they have had this year, especially defensively. Jaire Alexander has been out for weeks while Kevin King and Darnell Savage have been limited in practice. At some point these injuries in the secondary have to take their toll. This is the offense that could take advantage of key injuries in the secondary and win this game at home. The Vikings are the more desperate team that could use a season defining win, while the Packers are due for a loss. I’ll take the points in a coin flip divisional game like this.
Play of the week #3: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
You fade Mike Tomlin as a favorite but bet him as an underdog. Tomlin is 37-15-2 ATS as an underdog from wee 3 on. I also love this matchup for the Steelers as I think it is just too many points for an average Los Angeles team. What the Chargers can’t defend is the running game and the Steelers really look to control the ground game with Najee Harris. I could see him having a big game in this one as the Chargers rank dead last in the NFL against the run. The Chargers are also bottom 5 defensively in sacks and third down conversions. In a game with many injuries, a noticeable coaching disadvantage, and one of the worst defenses in the NFL, you can’t possibly justify laying 5.5 with the Chargers. This feels like not only a Steelers cover, but it would not shock me one bit to see the Steelers win. It will feel like a home game with the amount of Terrible Towels we see in Los Angeles. That has to be accounted for here.
If you like the picks make sure to share with a friend! You can also follow me on my Action network HERE. You can see how I bet throughout the week and if there are any plays I add after the newsletter is sent out. Keep an eye on your inbox as I may have a Thanksgiving newsletter given there are three games on Thursday. Let’s make some dough.