NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Will Bills Hand Miami First Loss?
Awesome start to the week as the Packers teaser leg lost putting us behind the 8 ball early and dropping to 5-7 on the season. Despite a 3-2 week 3, I still feel like we are waiting for a breakout week. Let’s get into my best bets of week 4 and my survivor play.
As always make sure to check out the week 4 betting preview with my friend Jake which you can watch HERE. I also highly recommend that you subscribe to his newsletter HERE. HE has great actionable betting advice in the MLB and NBA throughout the regular season which I do not provide in this newsletter.
Play #1: Bills -2.5 vs Miami (Draft Kings)
When a team puts up 70 in the NFL I will be betting against them the next week. Miami’s offense is unbelievable but that’s not a real life score. If Miami was that unstoppable, I don’t think the books would be making them field goal underdogs against a team that lost to Zach Wilson. What I think is the edge here is that we have two great offenses but Buffalo has a significantly better defense. Buffalo is 2nd in EPA/play defensively trailing only Cleveland who has been historically great. The Bills also rank 3rd in pass rush win rate while sending the least amount of blitzes in the NFL. In comparison, the Dolphins opponents have ranked Denver (32), LAC (22), and New England (18th) in PRWR. So, this is a real test on the road for Miami. On the other side Miami has been incredibly poor against the run. They rank 30th in EPA/rush allowed and 30th in success rate. That should get exposed in a big way as Buffalo is he 2nd best rushing team in the NFL behind Philadelphia to start the season. This is a slightly different Bills team this year as their pace is way down to 30th in the league. Compared to past years they are making a concerted effort to run the ball more and attack more in the short and intermediate areas. When you combine that with a snail’s pace against a bad rush defense, Tua and that explosive Miami offense is going to be on the sideline a ton with limited possessions. This feels like the top of the market for Miami. I will be taking Josh Allen under a field goal at home.
Play #2: Tennessee Titans +3 vs Cincinnati (Bet Rivers)
A couple of reasons why I love this play. First, Tennessee is coming off of a blowout loss. This is a classic Vrabel spot as a home dog where he rallies the troops to give a fantastic effort at home. In fact, Vrabel is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog after a double digit loss. By the way, he is the only coach in the NFL who is above .500 straight up as an underdog. There may not be an offense you’d rather see right now in a bounce back spot than the Bengals. Which you might be saying “no Chuck I’d rather play the Jets.” Well guess what, the Jets have a higher yards per play this season than Cincy who is dead last in the NFL. Burrow is clearly injured and looks terrible. The offense overall just has zero juice. The best thing for them would be able to rely on a strong running game to take pressure off of Burrow. Unfortunately, the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL ranking 4th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate. I can guarantee Tennessee sells out to stop the run game to make Joe Burrow beat them (I can’t believe that’s a real sentence I just typed). Conversely, Cincy is terrible against the rush defensively and that’s all Tennessee wants to do. Cincy is 24th in rushing success rate and 25th in EPA/rush allowed. We shouldn’t throw Tennessee’s offense in the trash because Cleveland wrecked them. That is a defense off to an historic start allowing one red zone trip in 39 drives. Read that sentence again, it is truly unbelievable. I want Burrow and this offense to prove it to me. Until then I cannot justify laying points on the road with them. Combine that with an opponent that just got blown out and you see why I love this play.
Play #3: Panthers-Vikings Under 46.5
Bryce Young starting is the handicap for this one. The first overall pick has led this offense to 13.5 ppg in their first two contests, and although the Vikings aren’t the ‘85 Bears, they do have a DC in Brian Flores who was part of the Belichick coaching tree, and that tree has often found success against rookie quarterbacks. The Panthers just don’t have the weapons on the outside so their game plan will be to run the ball and play defense. Their best chance at winning is controlling the pace of this game and keeping an explosive Vikings offense on the sideline as long as possible. The Vikings only had 24 points last week and are stepping up in class against what I believe is still a good Carolina defense. This is also two teams that are winless so I think the intensity to get that first win will match that of a playoff game, which tends to be lower scoring games.
Play #4: Raiders +7 vs LA Chargers (Points Bet)
Listen, I’m not going to sit here and tell you there is some great matchup advantage that the Raiders have in this game. What I am going to tell you is that the Chargers shouldn’t be laying a touchdown against anyone. This defense ranks 28th in EPA/play and 29th in DVOA. More likely than not when your defense is that bad in the NFL, you are not beating teams by 7+ points frequently. The more likely scenario is that your games fall within a touchdown which has been the case with every game the Chargers have played this year. Furthermore, the quarterback position is overrated publicly against the spread in the NFL. This spread was all the way down to 4.5 before Jimmy G was ruled out, and I do not think that Aidan O’Connell is a significant downgrade from Jimmy G. As long as O’Connell takes care of the ball, the offense should have success against this suspect Chargers defense. This game is also a divisional matchup, which with the increase of familiarity, makes this more likely a close game. Also, the Raiders just lost in primetime, so they will be undervalued by the public, increasing their value against the spread. Give me the Raiders in this spot.
Play #5: Texans-Steelers under 41.5
This is a fade of both offenses in this one. Houston will once again be without it’s starting tackles. That is terrible news for the Texans when TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith are on the other side of the field. If you look at the Texans scoring last week you had a fullback kick return and a busted coverage touchdown for Tank Dell and a couple of short fields on turnovers. You cannot count on those happening on a week to week basis. For the Steelers I do not think that scoring 23 against the Raiders means they are competent. They had the 72 yard explosive to Calvin Austin but aside from that they had 59 plays for 261 yards which averages 4.4 yards per play. That would be good for 28th in the NFL with Chicago. This is also a horrible spot for Pittsburgh with Baltimore on deck and having played the Sunday primetime game on the road. This feels like a low scoring contest where points will be at a premium.
Survivor Journey- San Francisco 49ers
Used- Falcons, Bills, Chiefs
We have survived September folks. Round of applause all around. So many short spreads today, but luckily, we have saved one of the best teams in the NFL in the 49ers. If lightning strikes twice with the Cardinals, so be it. Normally I wouldn’t want to take a division game because of the familiarity but the talent is so titled in the Niners favor and the Cardinals just pulled off a massive upset so I would be shocked if they did it again. Let’s go Niners.