NFL Week 7: Back Philly in Primetime
2-1 week 6 as Cincy and Minnesota get home for us. Let’s see if we can get another winning week this week. A plethora of teams are on bye so only two plays here as opposed to the normal three plays.
Remember to check out my friend Jake’s newsletter at SportSense Entertainment HERE. He has great actionable breakdowns of the NFL, NBA, MLB, CFB, and NHL.
You can see us break down our best bets of the week 7 NFL slate on YouTube HERE. Our best bets collectively went 5-0 last week so make sure to check that out to get two perspectives on the NFL action.
Play #1: Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs Miami Dolphins
Due to time constraints I have to get this newsletter out before the 1 PM games. If you like this write up and want to bet Philly see if a 2.5 pops. I’ll use -3 for grading purposes. This is just a great spot for a bounce back. Philly looked hopeless and helpless losing as 7 point favorites at the Jets, but the Jets defense in Met Life has been awesome. Robert Saleh said it himself, the Jets have embarrassed some of the best QBs in the league, and he’s right. Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts combined for 8 interceptions and had their worst games of the year when playing New York. What this reminds me of is when the Bills got beat by the Jets and then whooped Miami two weeks later. Miami has this high-flying offense but they can get pushed around defensively, and candidly, they don’t have a defense to compete with the best teams come January. Miami is currently the 27th ranked defense in DVOA, 23rd in EPA/play, and most importantly, 25th in EPA against the rush. No matter if the OC is Shane Steichen or Brian Johnson, we have seen time after time the past two years the Eagles want to run on you and I see no resistance coming from Miami. The Eagles are going to control the pace of this game, keep Miami’s potent offense on the sideline, and just beat the life out of the Dolphins like the Bills did a couple weeks ago. The defenses that will have success against Miami will be designed just like Buffalo’s; it’s defenses that can control the line of scrimmage and get pressure without blitzing. Well there will be no tougher test of this than the wrecking crew on Philly’s front which is the best in the NFL. Give me the Eagles to bounce back in a big way in primetime, in front of one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.
Play #2: Baltimore Ravens -3 vs Detroit Lions
The Lions are the talk of the league right now. People are talking Super Bowl and if they are the true best team in the NFC. That’s good news for us as it is time to sell high on our Lions stock. The Lions have been dominant but aside from Kansas City (who was missing Chris Jones and Travis Kelce and still should have lost that game) the Lions wins have come against Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, and Desmond Ridder. Those guys aren’t exactly murderers’ row, and they are certainly not former MVP Lamar Jackson. Those are also one-dimensional offenses, which the Ravens have shown that they can be multiple. The one offense Detroit faced that can be multiple was Seattle, who had nearly 400 yards and put up 31 points. The weakness of this Lions defense is it’s secondary and I think we see Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense really challenge them in this one. The Ravens are 7th in success rate passing so far this season and considering it is a new scheme I anticipate that they will only get better as the season progresses. The Lions will also be without David Montgomery who has been a big tone setter for them which I think will be felt today. The Lions really didn’t run well against Tampa averaging 1.82 yards per rush and that’s the strength of this Baltimore defense. The Lions had two big plays through the air and were bailed out by Baker Mayfield missing a ton of key throws. I think their fortunes change in this one. The Ravens are 4-2 but did everything in their power to lose to Pittsburgh and got a pretty bad whistle late against Indy. For the sake of argument, let’s say that Indy is a loss anyways as they probably deserved to lose. But if the Ravens are 5-1 or 6-0 instead of 4-2, I feel like the conversation around this team as contenders in the AFC would be much different. Given that I think laying just a field goal with Baltimore is a discounted price in this this game. The Lions are a good football team, but they are running too hot right now and are due for a tough outing. Let’s lay it with the Ravens.
Survivor Journey- Seattle Seahawks
Used- Falcons, Bills, Chiefs, Niners, Dolphins, Rams
Dodged a couple landmines in the survivor world as the Eagles and Niners lose outright as big road favorites. If only the Giants won on Sunday Night we’d really be sitting pretty. I think we stay the course and fade Arizona again. As Bengals -3 bettors last week, I will not apologize for winning a bet or give my money back. What I will say is that the Seahawks probably should have won that game. In fact, over the final 42:20 of gametime the Bengals only gained 87 yards (before kneel downs). What I am saying is that despite having Seattle at -110 to make the playoffs, I have not given them respect. Well, here’s my respect. Bounce back from a game you should have won by beating one of the worst teams in the NFL at home.