NFL Week 8: Back the Pack in Divisional Bout
2-0 week 7 as both the Eagles and Ravens cover pretty comfortably. 13-12-1 on the year and 96-63-6 since the start of 2021 on Sundays. Let’s keep the momentum going this week.
For more NFL breakdowns make sure to watch me and Jake breakdown the NFL week 8 board on YouTube HERE. You can also subscribe to his newsletter HERE. He has actionable breakdowns for the MLB and NBA which I don’t dabble in until the playoffs.
Play #1: Packers +1.5 vs Vikings (Fanduel)
This is a dream spot as a bettor where you can sell at the peak of the market on one team and buy at the basement for the other team. Minnesota just had a huge win in primetime against the Niners, which is going to make them super popular this week. It only took Kirk Cousins playing the game of his life and getting every bounce to go their way. The Niners had an opening drive fumble in the red zone ending the longest opening drive scoring streak in the NFL over the past 50 years. Then to end the half Kirk Cousins throws a ball right into the hands of Charvarious Ward that somehow turns into a Jordan Addison touchdown. Two huge swing plays went against the Niners that cost them 14 points and they still had a shot to win at the end. The Packers meanwhile we are buying at the absolute floor after looking horrible three straight weeks against the Lions, Raiders, and Broncos. For what it’s worth three of their four losses have been a combined 7 points so aside from the Detroit game they’ve had chances to win all of these games. At some point that one score luck will turn. From a matchup perspective the way to beat Green Bay is to run the ball which the Vikings can’t do. If they could, they wouldn’t have thrown it 45 times on Monday when leading all night. This is also a feast or famine defense with Minnesota who blitzes a ton leaving them vulnerable in the secondary and is horrible against the run. They are 24th in success rate and 15th in EPA/rush allowed. The Packers are a run first team and when that is successful, they can get Jordan Love in play action where he has been really good this year. Give me the Pack as a home underdog in a great buy low sell high spot.
Play #2: Commanders +7 vs Eagles
A home divisional dog getting 7 points with a total of 43 is a spot you have to play. This is a spot similar to Green Bay-Minnesota as well as far as buying low and selling high. The Eagles just beat the Dolphins by double digits in primetime which will make them overvalued while the Commanders have lost 4 of their last 5. The Commanders handed the Eagles their first loss last year and should have beaten them a couple weeks back so for whatever reason they just play them tough despite being a middling team. Having lost 4 of 5 this is a last stand game for the Commanders. For the Eagles coming off of a big primetime win and hosting Dallas next week this is a sandwich spot where I can see them sleepwalking for a 1 PM game against a bad team. Jalen Hurts still hasn’t looked right as he is tied with Desmond Ridder for turnovers this year and the red zone offense has been a disaster being one of the worst in the league. Let’s play the spot and buy low on the Commanders here.
Play #3: Broncos +7 vs Kansas City
This bet sucks but it’s another home divisional dog catching a touchdown. I was really encouraged by Denver’s defense last week and think that the bye week really helped them. For all intents and purposes, the defense won them that game allowing only 17 points and the one score was a tipped ball in the end zone. The one matchup that the Broncos have in this game is that they can run the ball successfully against Kansas City, especially with Nick Bolton out who has been a star for them. Three weeks ago, they ran for 5 yards a clip against the Chiefs and think they can replicate that. Listen, I am not here to tell you that the Broncos are a good team or that the Chiefs are bad. No shit, the Chiefs are really good, and Denver is bad, but we play this game by the spread which is the measuring stick. What I find interesting is that the books are leaving themselves exposed to 6-point teasers with Kansas City and they are not in the business of giving away money. This is similar to Buffalo and San Francisco last week where they just left those numbers at 7 and 7.5 making you think it’s free money. After losing 16 straight to KC or whatever it is, Denver has to be tired of hearing about that at some point. The Chiefs also travel to Germany to play Miami next week so this can be a lookahead spot. Motivation edge to Denver. The Chiefs offense has also lacked explosiveness, it’s Travis Kelce or bust, which helps us here and they tend to play with their food and haven’t been blowing teams like this out. Hold your nose, pray to your god, and take Denver catching a touchdown at home.
Survivor Journey- Baltimore Ravens
Used- Falcons, Bills, Chiefs, Niners, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks
For the third straight week let’s fade the Arizona Cardinals without James Conner (and now Zach Ertz). The other option here was Detroit but given they are in the NFC I’d rather save them for later. Still on their schedule is the Bears twice, the Saints, and the Broncos so I foresee enough opportunities down the line to pass here. Based on recent history, Lamar Jackson has gotten dinged up just by the nature of his ability as a dual threat quarterback, so just in case he ever goes down I don’t want to be in a position where I am forced to take Tyler Huntley against a tougher AFC schedule when I could’ve just taken this spot. This is the case in my survivor pool so it could be the same in yours, but a lot of people used the Ravens week 1 against Houston so this feels like we have an ace up our sleeve here. Let’s go Ravens.